Massoud Barzani, President of the region of the Iraqi Kurdistan, has declared that in the absence of any counter-proposals from the International community, the referendum on independence, scheduled for Monday 25 September 2017, would definitely go ahead.
The UN Security Council (UNSC) has not managed to reach either a resolution (which would have legal force in international law), or even a declaration from its President (which indicates the positions of the Council members). All the UNSC has managed to do is issue a press communiqué condemning a potential secession. Clearly, some Council members are taking a position publicly that conceals their evil intentions on this matter.
The ballot will take place in both the independent region of Kurdistan and also in the territories that Barzani, working with Daesh, annexed. The referendum is a unilateral decision of Erbil, condemned by the National Assembly, the Federal Government and the Supreme Court of Baghdad. It is intervening now because more than 3 million non-Kurds have had to flee the region, as a result of the ethnic cleansing that Barzani undertook, and have sought asylum in Turkey and Syria. There are about 8 million Kurds in the area.
However, the finances of an independent Kurdistan will be difficult to guarantee given the military expenses engaged and the price of oil being only around 70 dollar per barrel.
The French giant Total is exploiting the Shaikan oilfield to the max. The Russian state company, Rosneft, has just signed a billion dollar contract with President Barzani to build a new gas pipeline. The British company, Gulf Keystone Petroleum, is also getting ready to develop its investments here.
However Turkey, which is the operator of the Kurdish–Turkish pipeline, BOTAŞ Petroleum Pipeline Corporation, could brutally cut off transport at the port of Ceyhan. The Turkish army is gathering its troops at the border of the Iraqi Kurdistan, officially to conduct military exercises. The regional press considers that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is ready for a military intervention.
An agreement could be reached. If it were, the referendum would not be followed by a declaration of independence.
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